Where Mortgage Rates Stand Today, and What to Watch Next
Rate update date: October 4, 2026
Mortgage rates are being influenced by two separate market factors:
- The Bank of Canada policy rate affects prime and variable-rate pricing.
- The Government of Canada bond market primarily influences fixed-rate pricing.
The Bank of Canada policy rate remains unchanged. Fixed mortgage rates have still moved because bond yields have increased.
Current Rate Snapshot
The following rates are Glenn Bauman’s current best-available rates from his lender panel for well-qualified, typically insured files.
| Mortgage product | Rate |
|---|---|
| 1-year fixed | 4.19% |
| 2-year fixed | 3.99% |
| 3-year fixed | 3.99% |
| 4-year fixed | 3.99% |
| 5-year fixed | 4.14% |
| 5-year variable | 3.44% |
Bank Prime Rate: 4.45%; Bank of Canada policy rate: 2.25%, unchanged at the September 2, 2026 meeting.
These rates are not universal offers. Qualification, down payment, property type, amortization, credit profile, income documentation, lender policy, and transaction details affect the rate available for a specific application.
How We Got Here
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% at its September 2, 2026 meeting. The Bank stated that growth and inflation had evolved broadly in line with its forecast.
The policy rate affects short-term borrowing costs. It is an important reference for:
- Variable-rate mortgages
- Home equity lines of credit
- Other products priced from prime
- Lender prime rates
Bank Prime Rate is currently 4.45%. Because prime has remained unchanged, variable mortgage pricing has also remained relatively stable for well-qualified borrowers.
Fixed mortgage pricing follows a different process.
The 5-year Government of Canada bond yield is the main market reference for many 5-year fixed mortgage rates. That yield has climbed toward the mid-3% range. As a result, lenders have adjusted fixed mortgage pricing upward even though the Bank of Canada policy rate has not changed.
This distinction is important:
- A Bank of Canada rate hold does not automatically mean fixed mortgage rates will remain unchanged.
- A bond-yield increase can place upward pressure on fixed rates.
- A change in prime can affect variable mortgage rates.
- Mortgage rates can move before or after a Bank of Canada announcement.
Annual inflation reached 3.0% in July, at the upper end of the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% target band. The increase was largely associated with gasoline and travel costs.
The short version is:
The policy rate is steady. Fixed mortgage rates are being influenced by the bond market, and the bond market has been the part moving.
For more background, review the Bank of Canada’s September 2, 2026 policy announcement and its policy interest rate data.
What to Watch Next
The items below can move mortgage pricing. They are not a forecast or prediction of where rates will go.
1. The October 28 Bank of Canada decision
The Bank of Canada is scheduled to publish its next interest rate decision and Monetary Policy Report on October 28, 2026.
The announcement may affect expectations for:
- Prime-based variable mortgages
- Home equity lines of credit
- Lender funding costs
- Borrower decisions about fixed and variable terms
No specific outcome should be assumed before the announcement.
2. Government of Canada bond yields
Bond yields can change daily. Fixed mortgage rates may change when lenders update their funding costs or adjust pricing in response to market conditions.
Monitor bond yields when evaluating:
- A fixed-rate pre-approval
- A rate hold
- A fixed-rate renewal
- A conversion from variable to fixed
- A purchase closing several weeks or months away
A stable policy rate does not guarantee stable fixed rates.
3. Trade and tariff uncertainty
Trade and tariff developments can affect economic growth, inflation, business investment, employment, and market expectations.
These factors may influence:
- Government bond yields
- Central bank decisions
- Prime-rate expectations
- Fixed and variable mortgage pricing
The effect depends on the nature, timing, and duration of each development.
Use the Rate as a Starting Point
The lowest displayed rate is not automatically the most suitable mortgage.
Review the complete structure:
- Rate
- Term
- Amortization
- Payment
- Prepayment options
- Portability
- Penalties
- Restrictions
- Qualification requirements
- Lender service timelines
For some borrowers, a shorter term may provide flexibility. For others, payment stability may be the priority. A variable rate may offer a lower starting rate while retaining exposure to future prime-rate changes. A fixed rate may provide payment certainty for the term while carrying different renewal and penalty considerations.
The correct comparison depends on your next transaction, your time horizon, and your ability to manage payment changes.
Let’s Talk About Your Rate
Review your current rate, renewal date, pre-approval, or purchase timeline before selecting a mortgage.
You can also contact Glenn Bauman directly:
- T: 226-868-9985
- E: inquiry@glennbauman.com
- W: www.glennbauman.com
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Glenn Bauman
Mortgage Agent TMG FSRA Lic# M19001990
Disclaimer
This article provides general information only. It is not legal, tax, accounting, investment, or financial-planning advice.
Mortgage products, rates, qualification, lender policy, property valuation, fees, timelines, and approval vary by lender, borrower, property, and transaction. No approval, rate, term, or outcome is guaranteed.
Rates shown are best available from the Glenn Bauman lender panel for qualifying applicants, subject to qualification and lender approval, change without notice, and available on approved credit (OAC).
Market commentary reflects information available as of October 4, 2026. It is not a forecast or guarantee of future mortgage rates.
Best available rates / OAC / last updated Oct 4, 2026